Rafi Farber is the mind behind End Game Investors and is renowned for his acute analysis and strategic financial foresight. Focusing on the broader commodities bull market, Farber believes that the impending golden cross in the gold to CRB ratio signals a forthcoming uptrend in gold and silver prices compared to other commodities. With the Commodity Research Bureau Index (CRB) up 13% year-to-date, the commodity market shows strong performance despite some sectors lagging. The remainder of the year will be critical to observe, particularly how commodities like gold continue to act as economic indicators.
Forecasting the future of mining stocks, he anticipates heightened profitability as gold and silver prices surge ahead of other commodities. Gold stocks have lagged in part because production costs have gone up 35% since early 2020, mainly due to higher labor costs. This is one reason gold stocks will likely hit their old highs if gold moves a lot higher. But if the gold price rally continues, the miners will join in and rally.
In his analysis, Farber highlights a bear market trend in the gold-to-S&P 500 ratio since 2011. As of early 2024, there’s a notable uptick in the ratio, signaling a shift toward gold’s superiority over stocks in a deflationary environment. On Monday, the price of gold was 2,330 dollars per Troy ounce, which is 13% higher than the price at the beginning of the year. The S&P 500, an index that tracks the stock performance of the 500 largest publicly traded companies, has also had a blazing-hot start to 2024, gaining 9.34% to reach its current level of 5,215.
In the interview, Rafi Farber noted the disparity between gold’s reaction to Federal Reserve rate announcements. Powell said Tuesday that it will likely take longer to gain confidence that price growth is heading toward the Fed’s goal, remarks that followed a string of surprisingly strong US inflation readings. The Fed chief also said that giving the US Central Bank’s restrictive policy further time to work is appropriate. Treasury yields climbed to fresh 2024 highs, and the dollar rose after Powell’s comments, while bullion held modest gains.
For gold traders, Powell’s remarks didn’t break much new ground, although his comments suggested a May rate cut is off the table and June is increasingly unlikely. Swap markets show the Fed will only begin easing in September after indicating July a week ago. Lower rates are generally positive for gold as it pays no interest. Farber stressed that higher rates typically result in a weaker dollar and increased gold and silver prices in a debt-backed economy, a perspective frequently ignored by mainstream sources.
Furthermore, Farber delves into the gold-silver ratio and foresees a shift favoring silver in the final phase of the current bull market. He predicts silver potentially outpacing gold, reaching a ratio of 15 to 1. This change could be spurred by increased public awareness of economic dynamics and silver’s affordability relative to gold.

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