M3 Market Update is a weekly to bi-weekly review of the current state of housing (including long and short-term rental), commercial real estate and mortgage finance with relevant data and drivers. Not investment advice.
In this week’s episode I discuss recent data on mortgage credit and applications, the Jobs report and CPI.
Link to Substack: Coming Soon
Misc references:
Jeff Snider’s deep dive on the Jobs report: https://www.youtube.com/watch?vmZpOae65T2U
Listings for Sale
The Fed just posted their inventory numbers for December yesterday and we saw a -5.78% decrease in inventory year-over-year (Nov vs Dec). For context, in 2022, inventory decreased by -9.23% from November to December.
Top Cities with Largest % Increase in Inventory Week-over-Week (12/31-1/7):
Phoenix 6.66%
Scottsdale 5.51%
Rochester 3.78%
Hoboken 3.13%
Lakewood Ranch 2.73%
Top Cities with Largest % Increase in Inventory Month-over-Month (12/3 vs 1/7) – only 3 had increases
Fort Myers, FL 2.07%
Boca Raton, FL 1.26%
Lakewood Ranch .43%
Phoenix .10%
Top Cities with Largest % Increase in Inventory Year-Over-Year
**Started with 20 cities and added throughout the year, so as we progress this data series will get more robust
San Ramon 60.00% (small population)
Knoxville 24.94%
Johnson City 17.47%
Dallas 16.43%
Denver 12.32%
Austin 9.85%
Nashville 5.54%
Atlanta 5.43%
Seattle 2.35%
Miami 2.00%
Listings for Rent
Listings for rent dropped on average -3.17% week-over-week and -2.83% month-over-month. Comparing to its 24-week average, rents are up .90%. I have less data on listings for rent to say for sure whether this is standard, but I don’t believe this trend will sustain with all the multifamily slated to come online.
Top Cities with Highest % Increase of Single-Family Rental Listings (12/31-1/7)
Portsmouth, NH 32.00%
Pittsburgh 15.06%
Sedona, AZ 8.11%
Augusta, GA 7.82%
Bentonville, AR 7.10%
Top Cities with Highest % Increase of Single-Family Rental Listings M-O-M (Dec to Jan)
Portsmouth, NH 65.00%
Sedona 29.03%
Tupelo 17.24%
Pittsburgh 13.44%
Knoxville 8.61%
Top Cities with Highest % Increase of Single-Family Rental Listings to 24-week Average
Sevierville 38.24%
Knoxville 31.36%
Portsmouth 30.08%
Dallas 22.79%
Sedona 22.50%
Airbnb/VRBO – Short-Term Rental
Top Cities with Largest Increase in Short-Term Rental Listings (Nov to Oct)
Bakersfield 15.89%
Boston 15.80%
Huntsville 12.98%
Tupelo 10.77%
Richmond 9.60%
Top Cities with Largest Decrease in Short-Term Rental Listings (Nov to Oct)
Portland -82.55% (has strict laws and recent articles talk about them enforcing them)
Sacramento -14.29%
Cape May, NJ -9.02%
Austin -7.52%
Chicago -5.74%
Top Cities with Largest Increase in Short-Term Rental Listings Year-Over-Year (Nov 23 to Nov 22)
San Ramon 66.56% (I mean what else can they do with the new inventory)
Fort Myers 66.67% (largely due to Ian)
Winter Garden, FL 54.86%
Boca Raton, FL 53.27%
El Cajon, CA 48.57%
General Reference & Recommendations:
1) #silentdepression – For a review of what’s really been going on in the economy since 2007 to understand the path of housing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?vdcl1RP1ziNo. Follow @emilkalinowski on Twitter or YouTube.
2) Eurodollar University YouTube Daily Briefing: https://www.youtube.com/@eurodollaruniversity
3) The term Eurodollar sounds kinda weird and the concepts are complicated, so I recommend going back to the very beginning where they lay it out very simply. This is a MASTER CLASS in monetary policy and the plumbing of the financial system: https://www.youtube.com/watch?vXPlvXuDqxBc
4) And for an episode on some of the myths surrounding the Fed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?vG2AD-0r0Vlk
5) The Fourth Turning: https://www.amazon.com/The-Fourth-Turning-audiobook/dp/B00005UPTV/refsr_1_1?hvadid377825614251&hvdevc&hvlocphy9005974&hvnetwg&hvqmte&hvrand7239185417261577819&hvtargidkwd-513996878352&hydadcr7465_9611852&keywordsthefourthturningneilhowe&qid1685491236&sr8-1
6) A Brief History of Doom: https://www.audible.com/pd/A-Brief-History-of-Doom-Audiobook/B07WP67Q3G?source_codeGPAGBSH0508140001&ipRedirectOverridetrue&gclidCjwKCAjwhdWkBhBZEiwA1ibLmG2_fihIT0EOL8FmQxsjpXK7LX77Kezt6_eR2Q-RKrv0Tzpw0UE18RoCxcQQAvD_BwE&gclsrcaw.ds
7) Swamp Peddlers – https://www.amazon.com/Swamp-Peddlers-Scammers-Retirees-Transformed/dp/B096CJ9SW1/refsr_1_1?keywordsswamppeddlers&qid1696972120&sr8-1
FHFA Home Price Index: https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/ReportDocuments/HPI_2023Q1.pdf
Case Schiller Home Price Index: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
Please reach out to me with questions or comments:
Twitter: @m3_melody
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/melody-wright-44204a4/
Substack: https://m3melody.substack.com
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